NCAA Football (FBS) win total projections after 10/4/23 games.

The chart below is taking a look at the previous week’s box scores and showing who may have overachieved or underachieved based on stats. The program generates an “expected” margin of victory, using actual final game stats, and compares that to the: 1. Las Vegas line (pre-game prediction) 2. Actual margin of victory So if […]

The chart below is taking a look at the previous week’s box scores and showing who may have overachieved or underachieved based on stats. The program generates an “expected” margin of victory, using actual final game stats, and compares that to the: 1. Las Vegas line (pre-game prediction) 2. Actual margin of victory So if […]

NCAA Football (FBS) win total projections after week 3.  

The chart below is taking a look at the previous week’s box scores and showing who may have overachieved or underachieved based on stats. The program generates an “expected” margin of victory, using actual final game stats, and compares that to the: 1. Las Vegas line (pre-game prediction) 2. Actual margin of victory So if […]

The chart below is taking a look at the previous week’s box scores and showing who may have overachieved or underachieved based on stats. The program generates an “expected” margin of victory, using actual final game stats, and compares that to the: 1. Las Vegas line (pre-game prediction) 2. Actual margin of victory So if […]

NCAA Box Score Analysis The chart below is taking a look at the previous week’s box scores and showing who may have overachieved or underachieved based on stats. The program generates an “expected” margin of victory, using actual final game stats, and compares that to the: 1. Las Vegas line (pre-game prediction) 2. Actual margin […]

NCAA Football (FBS) win total projections. Added a floor and ceiling as well based on their opponents. Team Floor Projected W Total Ceiling Games Air Force 5.82 8.03 10.25 12 Akron 1.61 3.83 6.04 12 Alabama 8.72 10.07 11.41 12 Appalachian St. 5.06 7.12 9.19 12 Arizona 1.02 4.47 7.93 12 Arizona State 1.74 4.64 […]

Listed as pre-game win expectancy, actual result, and post game win expectancy. Pre game W EXP. Actual Post Game W EXP. SMU 42.20% 7.46% 54.12% UCF 57.80% 92.54% 45.88% SJSU 66.50% 98.48% 85.72% UNLV 33.50% 1.52% 14.28% Pre game W EXP. Actual Post Game W EXP. NEB 57.80% 52.61% 40.66% RUTG 42.20% 47.39% 59.34% Pre […]

NCAA Box Score Analysis The chart below is taking a look at the previous week’s box scores and showing who may have overachieved or underachieved based on stats. The program generates an “expected” margin of victory, using actual final game stats, and compares that to the: 1. Las Vegas line (pre-game prediction) 2. Actual margin […]

Listed as pre-game win expectancy, actual result, and post game win expectancy. Pre game W EXP. Actual Post Game W EXP. WASH 57.80% 29.993% 49.1028% UCLA 42.20% 70.007% 50.8972% Pre game W EXP. Actual Post Game W EXP. USU 4.41% 21.567% 28.2602% BYU 95.59% 78.433% 71.7398% Pre game W EXP. Actual Post Game W EXP. […]

NCAA Box Score Analysis The chart below is taking a look at the previous week’s box scores and showing who may have overachieved or underachieved based on stats. The program generates an “expected” margin of victory, using actual final game stats, and compares that to the: 1. Las Vegas line (pre-game prediction) 2. Actual margin […]

NCAA Box Score Analysis The chart below is taking a look at the previous week’s box scores and showing who may have overachieved or underachieved based on stats. The program generates an “expected” margin of victory, using actual final game stats, and compares that to the: 1. Las Vegas line (pre-game prediction) 2. Actual margin […]

NCAA Box Score Analysis The chart below is taking a look at the previous week’s box scores and showing who may have overachieved or underachieved based on stats. The program generates an “expected” margin of victory, using actual final game stats, and compares that to the: 1. Las Vegas line (pre-game prediction) 2. Actual margin […]

  NCAA Box Score Analysis The chart below is taking a look at the previous week’s box scores and showing who may have overachieved or underachieved based on stats. The program generates an “expected” margin of victory, using actual final game stats, and compares that to the: 1. Las Vegas line (pre-game prediction) 2. Actual […]

NCAA Box Score Analysis The chart below is taking a look at the previous week’s box scores and showing who may have overachieved or underachieved based on stats. The program generates an “expected” margin of victory, using actual final game stats, and compares that to the: 1. Las Vegas line (pre-game prediction) 2. Actual margin […]

NCAA Box Score Analysis The chart below is taking a look at the previous week’s box scores and showing who may have overachieved or underachieved based on stats. The program generates an “expected” margin of victory, using actual final game stats, and compares that to the: 1. Las Vegas line (pre-game prediction) 2. Actual margin […]

NCAA Box Score Analysis The chart below is taking a look at the previous week’s box scores and showing who may have overachieved or underachieved based on stats. The program generates an “expected” margin of victory, using actual final game stats, and compares that to the: 1. Las Vegas line (pre-game prediction) 2. Actual margin […]

I’ve put together a program taking a look at each NCAA Football box score to see if a team’s, actual stats, met their pre-game (line) expectation and the final score (margin). So if a team meets or exceeds pre-game expectations, by the actual play on the field, they are rewarded. However if they win or […]