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2020 XFL Projections

Week 5
Dallas number is adjusted based on starting QB being out. They will most likely increase assuming they win this week and once Landry Jones returns from injury to QB the team.

Even though Dallas is without their starting QB they show value against NY. NY won 17-14 last week vs. LA but were outgained by nearly 100 yds on offense and won the TO battle. They’ve scored 9 points in two road games as well this year. Would be surprised if they were able to get to 14 points on the road against Dallas.

Team yardage projections for week 5

1st half/2nd half scoring breakdown


Week 4

Check out XFL season win, game by game and team yardage projections

Based on my current win projections it looks like the XFL playoff teams are starting to take shape. The top two teams from each conference play each other with the winners moving on to the championship. Dallas and Houston are clearly the class of the XFL West and DC and St. Louis tops in the XFL East. One game this week that could determine if a couple of other teams are viable contenders is LA at NY. The winner of that game could emerge as a threat to the top two in each division.

Game Projections

I have NY and LA as my biggest discrepancy from the projections to the actual betting line. The market has LA -7 but my current numbers have NY a small favorite. The team yardage projections listed below show LA with a possible advantage but it seems like the betting market has overreacted to the games from last week.

LA was able to win convincingly versus DC albeit with the help of a +5 turnover differential. NY on the other hand was beaten soundly but outgained St. Louis and gave up a kickoff return touchdown and a short field score (17 yard drive) off of a blocked punt. 

My number may be high on NY and low on LA but the Wildcats traveling cross country and laying a full touchdown after playing the perfect game vs DC seems like an overreaction.

Backing NY’s offense is scary but they managed to outgain St. Louis and get into the redzone three times only going 1 for 3. and 1 for 2 on goal to go.

Dallas is a another home dog that stands out this week. (+1.5 vs Houston). In Landry Jones’ two starts they’ve accounted for 444 and 374 yards of offense both coming in road games. Their defense has held their two opponents to 240 (LA) and 300 (Seattle).

Yardage projections below suggest Dallas should outgain Houston this week as well as the game projection shows the Renegades should be a small home favorite, not an underdog.

Below are scoring breakdowns for each team and their opponents scoring by half. 

Updated: March 7, 2020 — 7:36 am
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