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NCAA Football 2022 Box Score Analysis

NCAA Box Score Analysis

The chart below is taking a look at the previous week’s box scores and showing who may have overachieved or underachieved based on stats. The program generates an “expected” margin of victory, using actual final game stats, and compares that to the:

1. Las Vegas line (pre-game prediction) 2. Actual margin of victory

So if a team meets or exceeds pre game expectations, by the actual play on the field, they are rewarded. However if they win or lose and are statistically dominated this program will show that.

Key: 1. ATS– Against the spread.

2. Act. Yds vs Act. Spread –How each team did using their yardage stats and turnovers.

3. Game should’ve been.. — A scoring projection based on total yards gained using yards per point.

4. Win Margin—Final game margin.

5. Yds/TO spread conv.— A spread projection using total yards gained/allowed and turnovers.

6. Game tot—Acutal game total.

7. Yppt. Total—A total projection of how many points should’ve been scored based on yards.

8. W/L Projection—An estimation of the final score using actual yards and turnover margin. 9. Margin—A number each team “should’ve” won/loss by.

10. Actual Yds—Total yards gained in the game by the offense. 11. Score should’ve been..—A projection for a score based on the game stats and turnovers.

12. TO—Adjusted TO based on actual and pre-game projection.

13. Next Week—A computer generated suggestion for how a team may do next week. (Good, Bad, Play, Fade)

Good—Played as they were projected to do in the game.

Bad—Played below expectations for the game.

Fade—Played well below expectations for the game.

Play—Played better than final score and should be looked at next week.

(Good/Bad/Fade/Play are just suggestions to look at as a guide. Don’t just automatically use them as they are listed. They are to be used to help not as a magic formula)

Team ATS Act. yds vs act. spread Game should’ve been.. Win Margin Yds/TO spread conv. Points Scored Closing Line YPP OFF Plays
                   
NEV Won ATS Worse than predicted Higher Scoring -11 9.93 35 -7.50 3.78 68
NMSU Lost ATS Better than predicted Higher Scoring 11 -9.93 35 7.50 5.14 59
                   
  Yppt. Total W/L Projection Margin Actual Yds Score should’ve been.. TO Adjusted TO 1st Downs Next Week
                   
NEV 38.56 Should have lost by 9.93 257 14.32 0 0.00 18.00 FADE
NMSU 38.56 Should have won by 9.93 303 24.24 5 4.38 16.00 PLAY
                   
  Final Score Total Yards Plays Run YPP Adj TO 1st Downs Rush Att 3rd Down EFF Penalties
                   
NEV 23.00 —— YES —— YES YES YES 8-17 6-65
NMSU 12.00 YES —— YES —— —— —— 5-12 11-91
                   
Team ATS Act. yds vs act. spread Game should’ve been.. Win Margin Yds/TO spread conv. Points Scored Closing Line YPP OFF Plays
                   
NEB Lost ATS Worse than predicted Higher Scoring 3 -7.01 59 -11.50 6.37 73
NU Won ATS Better than predicted Higher Scoring -3 7.01 59 11.50 6.21 85
                   
  Yppt. Total W/L Projection Margin Actual Yds Score should’ve been.. TO Adjusted TO 1st Downs Next Week
                   
NEB 68.57 Should have won by 7.01 465 37.79 3 3.00 23.00 BAD
NU 68.57 Should have lost by 7.01 528 30.78 1 0.04 25.00 GOOD
                   
  Final Score Total Yards Plays Run YPP Adj TO 1st Downs Rush Att 3rd Down EFF Penalties
                   
NEB 28.00 —— —— YES —— —— —— 9-16 1-5
NU 31.00 YES YES —— YES YES YES 7-17 11-91
                   
Team ATS Act. yds vs act. spread Game should’ve been.. Win Margin Yds/TO spread conv. Points Scored Closing Line YPP OFF Plays
                   
HOW Lost ATS Worse than predicted Higher Scoring 10 8.81 36 1.00 4.25 63
ALST Won ATS Better than predicted Higher Scoring -10 -8.81 36 -1.00 6.32 57
                   
  Yppt. Total W/L Projection Margin Actual Yds Score should’ve been.. TO Adjusted TO 1st Downs Next Week
                   
HOW 43.36 Should have lost by 8.81 268 17.27 1 0.92 17.00 BAD
ALST 43.36 Should have won by 8.81 360 26.08 2 2.00 17.00 GOOD
                   
  Final Score Total Yards Plays Run YPP Adj TO 1st Downs Rush Att 3rd Down EFF Penalties
                   
HOW 13.00 —— YES —— YES —— —— 4-12 8-65
ALST 23.00 YES —— YES —— —— YES 4-11 11-91
                   
Team ATS Act. yds vs act. spread Game should’ve been.. Win Margin Yds/TO spread conv. Points Scored Closing Line YPP OFF Plays
                   
IDST Lost ATS Worse than predicted Lower Scoring 31 32.59 73 22.50 3.60 67
UNLV Won ATS Better than predicted Lower Scoring -31 -32.59 73 -22.50 8.15 68
                   
  Yppt. Total W/L Projection Margin Actual Yds Score should’ve been.. TO Adjusted TO 1st Downs Next Week
                   
IDST 59.61 Should have lost by 32.59 241 13.51 1 -0.88 13.00 BAD
UNLV 59.61 Should have won by 32.59 554 46.10 0 0.00 23.00 GOOD
                   
  Final Score Total Yards Plays Run YPP Adj TO 1st Downs Rush Att 3rd Down EFF Penalties
                   
IDST 21.00 —— —— —— YES —— YES 5-17 4-27
UNLV 52.00 YES YES YES —— YES —— 6-12 11-91
                   
Team ATS Act. yds vs act. spread Game should’ve been.. Win Margin Yds/TO spread conv. Points Scored Closing Line YPP OFF Plays
                   
APSU Won ATS Better than predicted Lower Scoring 11 16.15 65 33.50 4.74 69
WKU Lost ATS Worse than predicted Lower Scoring -11 -16.15 65 -33.50 5.98 65
                   
  Yppt. Total W/L Projection Margin Actual Yds Score should’ve been.. TO Adjusted TO 1st Downs Next Week
                   
APSU 53.21 Should have lost by 16.15 327 18.53 4 1.21 19.00 GOOD
WKU 53.21 Should have won by 16.15 389 34.68 1 1.00 19.00 BAD
                   
  Final Score Total Yards Plays Run YPP Adj TO 1st Downs Rush Att 3rd Down EFF Penalties
                   
APSU 27.00 —— YES —— —— —— YES 7-18 8-60
WKU 38.00 YES —— YES YES —— —— 5-14 11-91
                   
Team ATS Act. yds vs act. spread Game should’ve been.. Win Margin Yds/TO spread conv. Points Scored Closing Line YPP OFF Plays
                   
CONN Won ATS Worse than predicted Higher Scoring 11 25.25 51 24.00 5.06 72
USU Lost ATS Better than predicted Higher Scoring -11 -25.25 51 -24.00 6.38 85
                   
  Yppt. Total W/L Projection Margin Actual Yds Score should’ve been.. TO Adjusted TO 1st Downs Next Week
                   
CONN 66.33 Should have lost by 25.25 364 20.54 3 1.00 21.00 FADE
USU 66.33 Should have won by 25.25 542 45.79 2 2.00 31.00 PLAY
                   
  Final Score Total Yards Plays Run YPP Adj TO 1st Downs Rush Att 3rd Down EFF Penalties
                   
CONN 20.00 —— —— —— YES —— —— 6-15 4-35
USU 31.00 YES YES YES —— YES YES 6-15 11-91
                   
Team ATS Act. yds vs act. spread Game should’ve been.. Win Margin Yds/TO spread conv. Points Scored Closing Line YPP OFF Plays
                   
WYO Lost ATS Worse than predicted Higher Scoring 32 21.41 44 14.00 4.16 51
ILL Won ATS Better than predicted Higher Scoring -32 -21.41 44 -14.00 5.89 81
                   
  Yppt. Total W/L Projection Margin Actual Yds Score should’ve been.. TO Adjusted TO 1st Downs Next Week
                   
WYO 49.75 Should have lost by 21.41 212 14.17 2 0.83 10.00 BAD
ILL 49.75 Should have won by 21.41 477 35.58 0 0.00 26.00 GOOD
                   
  Final Score Total Yards Plays Run YPP Adj TO 1st Downs Rush Att 3rd Down EFF Penalties
                   
WYO 6.00 —— —— —— —— —— —— 1-12 4-39
ILL 38.00 YES YES YES YES YES YES 7-16 11-91
                   
Team ATS Act. yds vs act. spread Game should’ve been.. Win Margin Yds/TO spread conv. Points Scored Closing Line YPP OFF Plays
                   
DUQ Won ATS Worse than predicted Higher Scoring 40 62.17 54 42.00 3.49 47
FSU Lost ATS Better than predicted Higher Scoring -40 -62.17 54 -42.00 8.39 76
                   
  Yppt. Total W/L Projection Margin Actual Yds Score should’ve been.. TO Adjusted TO 1st Downs Next Week
                   
DUQ 70.71 Should have lost by 62.17 164 4.27 0 -3.50 11.00 FADE
FSU 70.71 Should have won by 62.17 638 66.44 1 1.00 33.00 PLAY
                   
  Final Score Total Yards Plays Run YPP Adj TO 1st Downs Rush Att 3rd Down EFF Penalties
                   
DUQ 7.00 —— —— —— YES —— —— 1-10 4-29
FSU 47.00 YES YES YES —— YES YES 5-10 11-91
                   
Team ATS Act. yds vs act. spread Game should’ve been.. Win Margin Yds/TO spread conv. Points Scored Closing Line YPP OFF Plays
                   
CLT Lost ATS Worse than predicted Lower Scoring 30 15.74 56 7.00 5.47 51
FAU Won ATS Better than predicted Lower Scoring -30 -15.74 56 -7.00 6.51 74
                   
  Yppt. Total W/L Projection Margin Actual Yds Score should’ve been.. TO Adjusted TO 1st Downs Next Week
                   
CLT 53.28 Should have lost by 15.74 279 18.77 1 0.42 11.00 BAD
FAU 53.28 Should have won by 15.74 482 34.51 0 0.00 26.00 GOOD
                   
  Final Score Total Yards Plays Run YPP Adj TO 1st Downs Rush Att 3rd Down EFF Penalties
                   
CLT 13.00 —— —— —— —— —— —— 2-11 10-85
FAU 43.00 YES YES YES YES YES YES 8-16 11-91
                   
Team ATS Act. yds vs act. spread Game should’ve been.. Win Margin Yds/TO spread conv. Points Scored Closing Line YPP OFF Plays
                   
FAMU Won ATS Worse than predicted Lower Scoring 32 47.54 80 46.00 5.08 66
UNC Lost ATS Better than predicted Lower Scoring -32 -47.54 80 -46.00 7.79 78
                   
  Yppt. Total W/L Projection Margin Actual Yds Score should’ve been.. TO Adjusted TO 1st Downs Next Week
                   
FAMU 78.95 Should have lost by 47.54 335 15.71 2 -1.83 20.00 FADE
UNC 78.95 Should have won by 47.54 608 63.25 0 0.00 29.00 PLAY
                   
  Final Score Total Yards Plays Run YPP Adj TO 1st Downs Rush Att 3rd Down EFF Penalties
                   
FAMU 24.00 —— —— —— YES —— —— 5-13 8-48
UNC 56.00 YES YES YES —— YES YES 7-12 11-91
                   
Team ATS Act. yds vs act. spread Game should’ve been.. Win Margin Yds/TO spread conv. Points Scored Closing Line YPP OFF Plays
                   
UNT Won ATS Worse than predicted Higher Scoring -18 -0.48 44 -1.00 5.70 70
UTEP Lost ATS Better than predicted Higher Scoring 18 0.48 44 1.00 5.13 78
                   
  Yppt. Total W/L Projection Margin Actual Yds Score should’ve been.. TO Adjusted TO 1st Downs Next Week
                   
UNT 55.11 Should have won by 0.48 399 27.79 1 1.00 24.00 FADE
UTEP 55.11 Should have lost by 0.48 400 27.31 1 0.92 22.00 PLAY
                   
  Final Score Total Yards Plays Run YPP Adj TO 1st Downs Rush Att 3rd Down EFF Penalties
                   
UNT 31.00 —— —— YES —— YES YES 6-12 6-65
UTEP 13.00 YES YES —— YES —— —— 7-18 11-91
                   
Team ATS Act. yds vs act. spread Game should’ve been.. Win Margin Yds/TO spread conv. Points Scored Closing Line YPP OFF Plays
                   
VAN Won ATS Better than predicted Lower Scoring -53 -18.44 73 -9.00 8.35 72
HAW Lost ATS Worse than predicted Lower Scoring 53 18.44 73 9.00 4.42 81
                   
  Yppt. Total W/L Projection Margin Actual Yds Score should’ve been.. TO Adjusted TO 1st Downs Next Week
                   
VAN 67.44 Should have won by 18.44 601 42.94 0 0.00 28.00 GOOD
HAW 67.44 Should have lost by 18.44 358 24.50 2 1.25 20.00 BAD
                   
  Final Score Total Yards Plays Run YPP Adj TO 1st Downs Rush Att 3rd Down EFF Penalties
                   
VAN 63.00 YES —— YES YES YES YES 5-11 5-60
HAW 10.00 —— YES —— —— —— —— 5-16 11-91
                   
Team ATS Act. yds vs act. spread Game should’ve been.. Win Margin Yds/TO spread conv. Points Scored Closing Line YPP OFF Plays
                   
SFA Lost ATS Worse than predicted Lower Scoring 25 15.83 59 -7.50 4.16 55
JVST Won ATS Better than predicted Lower Scoring -25 -15.83 59 7.50 7.33 66
                   
  Yppt. Total W/L Projection Margin Actual Yds Score should’ve been.. TO Adjusted TO 1st Downs Next Week
                   
SFA 48.39 Should have lost by 15.83 229 16.28 1 1.00 13.00 BAD
JVST 48.39 Should have won by 15.83 484 32.11 2 1.38 24.00 GOOD
                   
  Final Score Total Yards Plays Run YPP Adj TO 1st Downs Rush Att 3rd Down EFF Penalties
                   
SFA 17.00 —— —— —— YES —— —— 6-15 3-35
JVST 42.00 YES YES YES —— YES YES 7-11 11-91
                   
Team ATS Act. yds vs act. spread Game should’ve been.. Win Margin Yds/TO spread conv. Points Scored Closing Line YPP OFF Plays
                   
MORE Lost ATS Worse than predicted Lower Scoring 50 43.10 76 29.50 3.56 78
MER Won ATS Better than predicted Lower Scoring -50 -43.10 76 -29.50 10.78 58
                   
  Yppt. Total W/L Projection Margin Actual Yds Score should’ve been.. TO Adjusted TO 1st Downs Next Week
                   
MORE 70.04 Should have lost by 43.10 278 13.47 2 -0.46 17.00 BAD
MER 70.04 Should have won by 43.10 625 56.57 2 2.00 26.00 GOOD
                   
  Final Score Total Yards Plays Run YPP Adj TO 1st Downs Rush Att 3rd Down EFF Penalties
                   
MORE 13.00 —— YES —— YES —— YES 9-21 3-15
MER 63.00 YES —— YES —— YES —— 8-10 11-91
Updated: August 29, 2022 — 2:55 pm
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