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2023 Week 0 CFB Box Score Analysis

NCAA Box Score Analysis

The chart below is taking a look at the previous week’s box scores and showing who may have overachieved or underachieved based on stats. The program generates an “expected” margin of victory, using actual final game stats, and compares that to the:

1. Las Vegas line (pre-game prediction) 2. Actual margin of victory

So if a team meets or exceeds pre game expectations, by the actual play on the field, they are rewarded. However if they win or lose and are statistically dominated this program will show that.

Key: 1. ATS– Against the spread.

2. Act. Yds vs Act. Spread –How each team did using their yardage stats and turnovers.

3. Game should’ve been.. — A scoring projection based on total yards gained using yards per point.

4. Win Margin—Final game margin.

5. Yds/TO spread conv.— A spread projection using total yards gained/allowed and turnovers.

6. Game tot—Acutal game total.

7. Yppt. Total—A total projection of how many points should’ve been scored based on yards.

8. W/L Projection—An estimation of the final score using actual yards and turnover margin. 9. Margin—A number each team “should’ve” won/loss by.

10. Actual Yds—Total yards gained in the game by the offense. 11. Score should’ve been..—A projection for a score based on the game stats and turnovers.

12. TO—Adjusted TO based on actual and pre-game projection.

13. Next Week—A computer generated suggestion for how a team may do next week. (Good, Bad, Play, Fade)

Good—Played as they were projected to do in the game.

Bad—Played below expectations for the game.

Fade—Played well below expectations for the game.

Play—Played better than final score and should be looked at next week.

(Good/Bad/Fade/Play are just suggestions to look at as a guide. Don’t just automatically use them as they are listed. They are to be used to help not as a magic formula)

NEW!! Post game win expectancy numbers below the box score analysis. It shows pre-game expectation (vs the predicted spread), actual final margin, and post-game win expectancy factoring in all of the box score stats.

Team ATS Act. yds vs act. spread Game should’ve been.. Win Margin Yds/TO spread conv. Points Scored Closing Line YPP OFF Plays
                   
SJSU Won ATS Better than predicted Lower Scoring 28 27.04 84 31.50 6.09 65
USC Lost ATS Worse than predicted Lower Scoring -28 -27.04 84 -31.50 7.38 68
                   
  Yppt. Total W/L Projection Margin Actual Yds Score should’ve been.. TO Adjusted TO 1st Downs Next Week
                   
SJSU 66.67 Should have lost by 27.04 396 19.81 0 -2.63 24.00 GOOD
USC 66.67 Should have won by 27.04 502 46.85 0 0.00 25.00 BAD
                   
  Final Score Total Yards Plays Run YPP Adj TO 1st Downs Rush Att 3rd Down EFF Penalties
                   
SJSU 28.00 —— —— —— YES —— —— 5-13 3-21
USC 56.00 YES YES YES —— YES YES 9-13 11-91
                   
      Pre game W EXP. Actual Post Game W EXP.        
    SJSU 1.943% 3.317% 3.8090%        
    USC 98.057% 96.683% 96.1910%        
                   
Team ATS Act. yds vs act. spread Game should’ve been.. Win Margin Yds/TO spread conv. Points Scored Closing Line YPP OFF Plays
                   
NAVY Lost ATS Worse than predicted Higher Scoring 39 28.75 45 20.50 3.17 54
ND Won ATS Better than predicted Higher Scoring -39 -28.75 45 -20.50 7.93 56
                   
  Yppt. Total W/L Projection Margin Actual Yds Score should’ve been.. TO Adjusted TO 1st Downs Next Week
                   
NAVY 45.99 Should have lost by 28.75 171 8.62 0 -1.71 12.00 BAD
ND 45.99 Should have won by 28.75 444 37.37 0 0.00 27.00 GOOD
                   
  Final Score Total Yards Plays Run YPP Adj TO 1st Downs Rush Att 3rd Down EFF Penalties
                   
NAVY 3.00 —— —— —— YES —— YES 4-14 3-26
ND 42.00 YES YES YES —— YES —— 5-7 11-91
                   
      Pre game W EXP. Actual Post Game W EXP.        
    NAVY 8.943% 0.527% 2.9712%        
    ND 91.057% 99.473% 97.0288%        
                   
Team ATS Act. yds vs act. spread Game should’ve been.. Win Margin Yds/TO spread conv. Points Scored Closing Line YPP OFF Plays
                   
UTEP Lost ATS Better than predicted Higher Scoring 3 -12.71 31 -1.50 5.06 72
JVST Won ATS Worse than predicted Higher Scoring -3 12.71 31 1.50 4.47 62
                   
  Yppt. Total W/L Projection Margin Actual Yds Score should’ve been.. TO Adjusted TO 1st Downs Next Week
                   
UTEP 44.27 Should have won by 12.71 364 28.49 3 3.00 22.00 PLAY
JVST 44.27 Should have lost by 12.71 277 15.78 0 -0.13 15.00 FADE
                   
  Final Score Total Yards Plays Run YPP Adj TO 1st Downs Rush Att 3rd Down EFF Penalties
                   
UTEP 14.00 YES YES YES —— YES YES 3-12 5-55
JVST 17.00 —— —— —— YES —— —— 7-16 11-91
                   
      Pre game W EXP. Actual Post Game W EXP.        
    UTEP 53.918% 42.202% 79.7666%        
    JVST 46.082% 57.798% 20.2334%        
                   
Team ATS Act. yds vs act. spread Game should’ve been.. Win Margin Yds/TO spread conv. Points Scored Closing Line YPP OFF Plays
                   
MASS Won ATS Worse than predicted Lower Scoring -11 15.63 71 7.00 7.20 54
NMSU Lost ATS Better than predicted Lower Scoring 11 -15.63 71 -7.00 7.23 65
                   
  Yppt. Total W/L Projection Margin Actual Yds Score should’ve been.. TO Adjusted TO 1st Downs Next Week
                   
MASS 59.65 Should have lost by 15.63 389 22.01 0 -0.58 17.00 FADE
NMSU 59.65 Should have won by 15.63 470 37.64 3 3.00 22.00 PLAY
                   
  Final Score Total Yards Plays Run YPP Adj TO 1st Downs Rush Att 3rd Down EFF Penalties
                   
MASS 41.00 —— —— —— YES —— —— 4-12 8-69
NMSU 30.00 YES YES YES —— YES YES 2-9 11-91
                   
      Pre game W EXP. Actual Post Game W EXP.        
    MASS 32.311% 76.464% 15.2662%        
    NMSU 67.689% 23.536% 84.7338%        
                   
Team ATS Act. yds vs act. spread Game should’ve been.. Win Margin Yds/TO spread conv. Points Scored Closing Line YPP OFF Plays
                   
OHIO Lost ATS Better than predicted Higher Scoring 7 -7.91 33 2.00 4.58 83
SDSU Won ATS Worse than predicted Higher Scoring -7 7.91 33 -2.00 5.33 58
                   
  Yppt. Total W/L Projection Margin Actual Yds Score should’ve been.. TO Adjusted TO 1st Downs Next Week
                   
OHIO 47.46 Should have won by 7.91 380 27.68 3 2.83 25.00 PLAY
SDSU 47.46 Should have lost by 7.91 309 19.78 1 1.00 15.00 FADE
                   
      Pre game W EXP. Actual Post Game W EXP.        
    OHIO 44.783% 32.311% 69.7979%        
    SDSU 55.217% 67.689% 30.2021%        
                   
  Final Score Total Yards Plays Run YPP Adj TO 1st Downs Rush Att 3rd Down EFF Penalties
                   
OHIO 13.00 YES YES —— —— YES YES 7-17 6-54
SDSU 20.00 —— —— YES YES —— —— 4-13 11-91
                   
Team ATS Act. yds vs act. spread Game should’ve been.. Win Margin Yds/TO spread conv. Points Scored Closing Line YPP OFF Plays
                   
FIU Won ATS Worse than predicted Higher Scoring 5 26.24 39 12.00 4.14 44
LT Lost ATS Better than predicted Higher Scoring -5 -26.24 39 -12.00 5.56 81
                   
  Yppt. Total W/L Projection Margin Actual Yds Score should’ve been.. TO Adjusted TO 1st Downs Next Week
                   
FIU 45.43 Should have lost by 26.24 182 9.59 1 0.00 8.00 FADE
LT 45.43 Should have won by 26.24 450 35.83 2 2.00 27.00 PLAY
                   
  Final Score Total Yards Plays Run YPP Adj TO 1st Downs Rush Att 3rd Down EFF Penalties
                   
FIU 17.00 —— —— —— YES —— —— 3-12 5-50
LT 22.00 YES YES YES —— YES YES 8-16 11-91
                   
      Pre game W EXP. Actual Post Game W EXP.        
    FIU 21.567% 37.151% 4.2643%        
    LT 78.433% 62.849% 95.7357%        
                   
Team ATS Act. yds vs act. spread Game should’ve been.. Win Margin Yds/TO spread conv. Points Scored Closing Line YPP OFF Plays
                   
HAW Won ATS Better than predicted Lower Scoring 7 -1.71 63 17.00 6.52 60
VAN Lost ATS Worse than predicted Lower Scoring -7 1.71 63 -17.00 5.70 53
                   
  Yppt. Total W/L Projection Margin Actual Yds Score should’ve been.. TO Adjusted TO 1st Downs Next Week
                   
HAW 47.73 Should have won by 1.71 391 24.72 2 0.58 19.00 GOOD
VAN 47.73 Should have lost by 1.71 302 23.01 0 0.00 17.00 BAD
                   
  Final Score Total Yards Plays Run YPP Adj TO 1st Downs Rush Att 3rd Down EFF Penalties
                   
HAW 28.00 YES YES YES —— YES YES 3-11 7-59
VAN 35.00 —— —— —— YES —— —— 5-12 11-91
                   
      Pre game W EXP. Actual Post Game W EXP.        
    HAW 13.248% 32.311% 54.4607%        
    VAN 86.752% 67.689% 45.5393%        
                   
Team ATS Act. yds vs act. spread Game should’ve been.. Win Margin Yds/TO spread conv. Points Scored Closing Line YPP OFF Plays
                   
UNA Won ATS Better than predicted Higher Scoring 10 16.66 24 23.50 4.13 60
MER Lost ATS Worse than predicted Higher Scoring -10 -16.66 24 -23.50 4.07 70
                   
  Yppt. Total W/L Projection Margin Actual Yds Score should’ve been.. TO Adjusted TO 1st Downs Next Week
                   
UNA 38.17 Should have lost by 16.66 248 10.76 0 -1.96 12.00 GOOD
MER 38.17 Should have won by 16.66 285 27.42 2 2.00 21.00 BAD
                   
  Final Score Total Yards Plays Run YPP Adj TO 1st Downs Rush Att 3rd Down EFF Penalties
                   
UNA 7.00 —— —— YES YES —— —— 4-15 8-73
MER 17.00 YES YES —— —— YES YES 6-16 11-91
                   
      Pre game W EXP. Actual Post Game W EXP.        
    UNA 6.166% 25.600% 13.7383%        
    MER 93.834% 74.400% 86.2617%        
                   
Team ATS Act. yds vs act. spread Game should’ve been.. Win Margin Yds/TO spread conv. Points Scored Closing Line YPP OFF Plays
                   
FOR Lost ATS Worse than predicted Lower Scoring 21 11.43 47 4.50 3.79 62
ALB Won ATS Better than predicted Lower Scoring -21 -11.43 47 -4.50 5.70 70
                   
  Yppt. Total W/L Projection Margin Actual Yds Score should’ve been.. TO Adjusted TO 1st Downs Next Week
                   
FOR 44.12 Should have lost by 11.43 235 16.34 1 0.63 16.00 BAD
ALB 44.12 Should have won by 11.43 399 27.77 0 0.00 23.00 GOOD
                   
  Final Score Total Yards Plays Run YPP Adj TO 1st Downs Rush Att 3rd Down EFF Penalties
                   
FOR 13.00 —— —— —— —— —— YES 2-12 9-60
ALB 34.00 YES YES YES YES YES —— 9-16 11-91
                   
      Pre game W EXP. Actual Post Game W EXP.        
    FOR 38.397% 8.425% 22.6785%        
    ALB 61.603% 91.575% 77.3215%        
                   
Team ATS Act. yds vs act. spread Game should’ve been.. Win Margin Yds/TO spread conv. Points Scored Closing Line YPP OFF Plays
                   
SCST Lost ATS Worse than predicted Higher Scoring 30 25.40 44 9.50 3.53 57
JKST Won ATS Better than predicted Higher Scoring -30 -25.40 44 -9.50 7.68 65
                   
  Yppt. Total W/L Projection Margin Actual Yds Score should’ve been.. TO Adjusted TO 1st Downs Next Week
                   
SCST 49.84 Should have lost by 25.40 201 12.22 1 0.21 14.00 BAD
JKST 49.84 Should have won by 25.40 499 37.62 1 1.00 24.00 GOOD
                   
  Final Score Total Yards Plays Run YPP Adj TO 1st Downs Rush Att 3rd Down EFF Penalties
                   
SCST 7.00 —— —— —— YES —— YES 6-14 8-63
JKST 37.00 YES YES YES —— YES —— 4-10 11-91
                   
      Pre game W EXP. Actual Post Game W EXP.        
    SCST 26.666% 2.458% 4.7898%        
    JKST 73.334% 97.542% 95.2102%        

 

Updated: August 27, 2023 — 7:51 pm
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