NCAA Box Score Analysis
The chart below is taking a look at the previous week’s box scores and showing who may have overachieved or underachieved based on stats. The program generates an “expected” margin of victory, using actual final game stats, and compares that to the:
1. Las Vegas line (pre-game prediction) 2. Actual margin of victory
So if a team meets or exceeds pre game expectations, by the actual play on the field, they are rewarded. However if they win or lose and are statistically dominated this program will show that.
Key: 1. ATS– Against the spread.
2. Act. Yds vs Act. Spread –How each team did using their yardage stats and turnovers.
3. Game should’ve been.. — A scoring projection based on total yards gained using yards per point.
4. Win Margin—Final game margin.
5. Yds/TO spread conv.— A spread projection using total yards gained/allowed and turnovers.
6. Game tot—Acutal game total.
7. Yppt. Total—A total projection of how many points should’ve been scored based on yards.
8. W/L Projection—An estimation of the final score using actual yards and turnover margin. 9. Margin—A number each team “should’ve” won/loss by.
10. Actual Yds—Total yards gained in the game by the offense. 11. Score should’ve been..—A projection for a score based on the game stats and turnovers.
12. TO—Adjusted TO based on actual and pre-game projection.
13. Next Week—A computer generated suggestion for how a team may do next week. (Good, Bad, Play, Fade)
Good—Played as they were projected to do in the game.
Bad—Played below expectations for the game.
Fade—Played well below expectations for the game.
Play—Played better than final score and should be looked at next week.
(Good/Bad/Fade/Play are just suggestions to look at as a guide. Don’t just automatically use them as they are listed. They are to be used to help not as a magic formula)
NEW!! Post game win expectancy numbers below the box score analysis. It shows pre-game expectation (vs the predicted spread), actual final margin, and post-game win expectancy factoring in all of the box score stats.
| Team | ATS | Act. yds vs act. spread | Game should’ve been.. | Win Margin | Yds/TO spread conv. | Points Scored | Closing Line | YPP | OFF Plays |
| SJSU | Won ATS | Better than predicted | Lower Scoring | 28 | 27.04 | 84 | 31.50 | 6.09 | 65 |
| USC | Lost ATS | Worse than predicted | Lower Scoring | -28 | -27.04 | 84 | -31.50 | 7.38 | 68 |
| Yppt. Total | W/L Projection | Margin | Actual Yds | Score should’ve been.. | TO | Adjusted TO | 1st Downs | Next Week | |
| SJSU | 66.67 | Should have lost by | 27.04 | 396 | 19.81 | 0 | -2.63 | 24.00 | GOOD |
| USC | 66.67 | Should have won by | 27.04 | 502 | 46.85 | 0 | 0.00 | 25.00 | BAD |
| Final Score | Total Yards | Plays Run | YPP | Adj TO | 1st Downs | Rush Att | 3rd Down EFF | Penalties | |
| SJSU | 28.00 | —— | —— | —— | YES | —— | —— | 5-13 | 3-21 |
| USC | 56.00 | YES | YES | YES | —— | YES | YES | 9-13 | 11-91 |
| Pre game W EXP. | Actual | Post Game W EXP. | |||||||
| SJSU | 1.943% | 3.317% | 3.8090% | ||||||
| USC | 98.057% | 96.683% | 96.1910% | ||||||
| Team | ATS | Act. yds vs act. spread | Game should’ve been.. | Win Margin | Yds/TO spread conv. | Points Scored | Closing Line | YPP | OFF Plays |
| NAVY | Lost ATS | Worse than predicted | Higher Scoring | 39 | 28.75 | 45 | 20.50 | 3.17 | 54 |
| ND | Won ATS | Better than predicted | Higher Scoring | -39 | -28.75 | 45 | -20.50 | 7.93 | 56 |
| Yppt. Total | W/L Projection | Margin | Actual Yds | Score should’ve been.. | TO | Adjusted TO | 1st Downs | Next Week | |
| NAVY | 45.99 | Should have lost by | 28.75 | 171 | 8.62 | 0 | -1.71 | 12.00 | BAD |
| ND | 45.99 | Should have won by | 28.75 | 444 | 37.37 | 0 | 0.00 | 27.00 | GOOD |
| Final Score | Total Yards | Plays Run | YPP | Adj TO | 1st Downs | Rush Att | 3rd Down EFF | Penalties | |
| NAVY | 3.00 | —— | —— | —— | YES | —— | YES | 4-14 | 3-26 |
| ND | 42.00 | YES | YES | YES | —— | YES | —— | 5-7 | 11-91 |
| Pre game W EXP. | Actual | Post Game W EXP. | |||||||
| NAVY | 8.943% | 0.527% | 2.9712% | ||||||
| ND | 91.057% | 99.473% | 97.0288% | ||||||
| Team | ATS | Act. yds vs act. spread | Game should’ve been.. | Win Margin | Yds/TO spread conv. | Points Scored | Closing Line | YPP | OFF Plays |
| UTEP | Lost ATS | Better than predicted | Higher Scoring | 3 | -12.71 | 31 | -1.50 | 5.06 | 72 |
| JVST | Won ATS | Worse than predicted | Higher Scoring | -3 | 12.71 | 31 | 1.50 | 4.47 | 62 |
| Yppt. Total | W/L Projection | Margin | Actual Yds | Score should’ve been.. | TO | Adjusted TO | 1st Downs | Next Week | |
| UTEP | 44.27 | Should have won by | 12.71 | 364 | 28.49 | 3 | 3.00 | 22.00 | PLAY |
| JVST | 44.27 | Should have lost by | 12.71 | 277 | 15.78 | 0 | -0.13 | 15.00 | FADE |
| Final Score | Total Yards | Plays Run | YPP | Adj TO | 1st Downs | Rush Att | 3rd Down EFF | Penalties | |
| UTEP | 14.00 | YES | YES | YES | —— | YES | YES | 3-12 | 5-55 |
| JVST | 17.00 | —— | —— | —— | YES | —— | —— | 7-16 | 11-91 |
| Pre game W EXP. | Actual | Post Game W EXP. | |||||||
| UTEP | 53.918% | 42.202% | 79.7666% | ||||||
| JVST | 46.082% | 57.798% | 20.2334% | ||||||
| Team | ATS | Act. yds vs act. spread | Game should’ve been.. | Win Margin | Yds/TO spread conv. | Points Scored | Closing Line | YPP | OFF Plays |
| MASS | Won ATS | Worse than predicted | Lower Scoring | -11 | 15.63 | 71 | 7.00 | 7.20 | 54 |
| NMSU | Lost ATS | Better than predicted | Lower Scoring | 11 | -15.63 | 71 | -7.00 | 7.23 | 65 |
| Yppt. Total | W/L Projection | Margin | Actual Yds | Score should’ve been.. | TO | Adjusted TO | 1st Downs | Next Week | |
| MASS | 59.65 | Should have lost by | 15.63 | 389 | 22.01 | 0 | -0.58 | 17.00 | FADE |
| NMSU | 59.65 | Should have won by | 15.63 | 470 | 37.64 | 3 | 3.00 | 22.00 | PLAY |
| Final Score | Total Yards | Plays Run | YPP | Adj TO | 1st Downs | Rush Att | 3rd Down EFF | Penalties | |
| MASS | 41.00 | —— | —— | —— | YES | —— | —— | 4-12 | 8-69 |
| NMSU | 30.00 | YES | YES | YES | —— | YES | YES | 2-9 | 11-91 |
| Pre game W EXP. | Actual | Post Game W EXP. | |||||||
| MASS | 32.311% | 76.464% | 15.2662% | ||||||
| NMSU | 67.689% | 23.536% | 84.7338% | ||||||
| Team | ATS | Act. yds vs act. spread | Game should’ve been.. | Win Margin | Yds/TO spread conv. | Points Scored | Closing Line | YPP | OFF Plays |
| OHIO | Lost ATS | Better than predicted | Higher Scoring | 7 | -7.91 | 33 | 2.00 | 4.58 | 83 |
| SDSU | Won ATS | Worse than predicted | Higher Scoring | -7 | 7.91 | 33 | -2.00 | 5.33 | 58 |
| Yppt. Total | W/L Projection | Margin | Actual Yds | Score should’ve been.. | TO | Adjusted TO | 1st Downs | Next Week | |
| OHIO | 47.46 | Should have won by | 7.91 | 380 | 27.68 | 3 | 2.83 | 25.00 | PLAY |
| SDSU | 47.46 | Should have lost by | 7.91 | 309 | 19.78 | 1 | 1.00 | 15.00 | FADE |
| Pre game W EXP. | Actual | Post Game W EXP. | |||||||
| OHIO | 44.783% | 32.311% | 69.7979% | ||||||
| SDSU | 55.217% | 67.689% | 30.2021% | ||||||
| Final Score | Total Yards | Plays Run | YPP | Adj TO | 1st Downs | Rush Att | 3rd Down EFF | Penalties | |
| OHIO | 13.00 | YES | YES | —— | —— | YES | YES | 7-17 | 6-54 |
| SDSU | 20.00 | —— | —— | YES | YES | —— | —— | 4-13 | 11-91 |
| Team | ATS | Act. yds vs act. spread | Game should’ve been.. | Win Margin | Yds/TO spread conv. | Points Scored | Closing Line | YPP | OFF Plays |
| FIU | Won ATS | Worse than predicted | Higher Scoring | 5 | 26.24 | 39 | 12.00 | 4.14 | 44 |
| LT | Lost ATS | Better than predicted | Higher Scoring | -5 | -26.24 | 39 | -12.00 | 5.56 | 81 |
| Yppt. Total | W/L Projection | Margin | Actual Yds | Score should’ve been.. | TO | Adjusted TO | 1st Downs | Next Week | |
| FIU | 45.43 | Should have lost by | 26.24 | 182 | 9.59 | 1 | 0.00 | 8.00 | FADE |
| LT | 45.43 | Should have won by | 26.24 | 450 | 35.83 | 2 | 2.00 | 27.00 | PLAY |
| Final Score | Total Yards | Plays Run | YPP | Adj TO | 1st Downs | Rush Att | 3rd Down EFF | Penalties | |
| FIU | 17.00 | —— | —— | —— | YES | —— | —— | 3-12 | 5-50 |
| LT | 22.00 | YES | YES | YES | —— | YES | YES | 8-16 | 11-91 |
| Pre game W EXP. | Actual | Post Game W EXP. | |||||||
| FIU | 21.567% | 37.151% | 4.2643% | ||||||
| LT | 78.433% | 62.849% | 95.7357% | ||||||
| Team | ATS | Act. yds vs act. spread | Game should’ve been.. | Win Margin | Yds/TO spread conv. | Points Scored | Closing Line | YPP | OFF Plays |
| HAW | Won ATS | Better than predicted | Lower Scoring | 7 | -1.71 | 63 | 17.00 | 6.52 | 60 |
| VAN | Lost ATS | Worse than predicted | Lower Scoring | -7 | 1.71 | 63 | -17.00 | 5.70 | 53 |
| Yppt. Total | W/L Projection | Margin | Actual Yds | Score should’ve been.. | TO | Adjusted TO | 1st Downs | Next Week | |
| HAW | 47.73 | Should have won by | 1.71 | 391 | 24.72 | 2 | 0.58 | 19.00 | GOOD |
| VAN | 47.73 | Should have lost by | 1.71 | 302 | 23.01 | 0 | 0.00 | 17.00 | BAD |
| Final Score | Total Yards | Plays Run | YPP | Adj TO | 1st Downs | Rush Att | 3rd Down EFF | Penalties | |
| HAW | 28.00 | YES | YES | YES | —— | YES | YES | 3-11 | 7-59 |
| VAN | 35.00 | —— | —— | —— | YES | —— | —— | 5-12 | 11-91 |
| Pre game W EXP. | Actual | Post Game W EXP. | |||||||
| HAW | 13.248% | 32.311% | 54.4607% | ||||||
| VAN | 86.752% | 67.689% | 45.5393% | ||||||
| Team | ATS | Act. yds vs act. spread | Game should’ve been.. | Win Margin | Yds/TO spread conv. | Points Scored | Closing Line | YPP | OFF Plays |
| UNA | Won ATS | Better than predicted | Higher Scoring | 10 | 16.66 | 24 | 23.50 | 4.13 | 60 |
| MER | Lost ATS | Worse than predicted | Higher Scoring | -10 | -16.66 | 24 | -23.50 | 4.07 | 70 |
| Yppt. Total | W/L Projection | Margin | Actual Yds | Score should’ve been.. | TO | Adjusted TO | 1st Downs | Next Week | |
| UNA | 38.17 | Should have lost by | 16.66 | 248 | 10.76 | 0 | -1.96 | 12.00 | GOOD |
| MER | 38.17 | Should have won by | 16.66 | 285 | 27.42 | 2 | 2.00 | 21.00 | BAD |
| Final Score | Total Yards | Plays Run | YPP | Adj TO | 1st Downs | Rush Att | 3rd Down EFF | Penalties | |
| UNA | 7.00 | —— | —— | YES | YES | —— | —— | 4-15 | 8-73 |
| MER | 17.00 | YES | YES | —— | —— | YES | YES | 6-16 | 11-91 |
| Pre game W EXP. | Actual | Post Game W EXP. | |||||||
| UNA | 6.166% | 25.600% | 13.7383% | ||||||
| MER | 93.834% | 74.400% | 86.2617% | ||||||
| Team | ATS | Act. yds vs act. spread | Game should’ve been.. | Win Margin | Yds/TO spread conv. | Points Scored | Closing Line | YPP | OFF Plays |
| FOR | Lost ATS | Worse than predicted | Lower Scoring | 21 | 11.43 | 47 | 4.50 | 3.79 | 62 |
| ALB | Won ATS | Better than predicted | Lower Scoring | -21 | -11.43 | 47 | -4.50 | 5.70 | 70 |
| Yppt. Total | W/L Projection | Margin | Actual Yds | Score should’ve been.. | TO | Adjusted TO | 1st Downs | Next Week | |
| FOR | 44.12 | Should have lost by | 11.43 | 235 | 16.34 | 1 | 0.63 | 16.00 | BAD |
| ALB | 44.12 | Should have won by | 11.43 | 399 | 27.77 | 0 | 0.00 | 23.00 | GOOD |
| Final Score | Total Yards | Plays Run | YPP | Adj TO | 1st Downs | Rush Att | 3rd Down EFF | Penalties | |
| FOR | 13.00 | —— | —— | —— | —— | —— | YES | 2-12 | 9-60 |
| ALB | 34.00 | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | —— | 9-16 | 11-91 |
| Pre game W EXP. | Actual | Post Game W EXP. | |||||||
| FOR | 38.397% | 8.425% | 22.6785% | ||||||
| ALB | 61.603% | 91.575% | 77.3215% | ||||||
| Team | ATS | Act. yds vs act. spread | Game should’ve been.. | Win Margin | Yds/TO spread conv. | Points Scored | Closing Line | YPP | OFF Plays |
| SCST | Lost ATS | Worse than predicted | Higher Scoring | 30 | 25.40 | 44 | 9.50 | 3.53 | 57 |
| JKST | Won ATS | Better than predicted | Higher Scoring | -30 | -25.40 | 44 | -9.50 | 7.68 | 65 |
| Yppt. Total | W/L Projection | Margin | Actual Yds | Score should’ve been.. | TO | Adjusted TO | 1st Downs | Next Week | |
| SCST | 49.84 | Should have lost by | 25.40 | 201 | 12.22 | 1 | 0.21 | 14.00 | BAD |
| JKST | 49.84 | Should have won by | 25.40 | 499 | 37.62 | 1 | 1.00 | 24.00 | GOOD |
| Final Score | Total Yards | Plays Run | YPP | Adj TO | 1st Downs | Rush Att | 3rd Down EFF | Penalties | |
| SCST | 7.00 | —— | —— | —— | YES | —— | YES | 6-14 | 8-63 |
| JKST | 37.00 | YES | YES | YES | —— | YES | —— | 4-10 | 11-91 |
| Pre game W EXP. | Actual | Post Game W EXP. | |||||||
| SCST | 26.666% | 2.458% | 4.7898% | ||||||
| JKST | 73.334% | 97.542% | 95.2102% |