Built this new Game Control Index (GCI) where I use play by play data to get how long each team led/tied/trailed on average and their average game margin during the contest. You’ll see the percentage that each team led or was tied in the game. The higher the percentage the more likely that team was in control of games throughout.
I also like to look at the wins teams had when they had a minus avg margin for the game (meaning they won but didn’t control the game and trailed by avg game margin). Either great coaching to pull those games out or inept closing time execution by their opponents. On the flip side finding teams that lost games that had a plus margin throughout the game may be worth watching. May be due to variety of reasons, poor coaching, turnovers, inexeperienced teams. Will be something to follow this season to see if it has any predictive value week to week. Worst case scenario is that it helps find misleading scores based on how teams “controlled” the game. Scrolling through teams and games it’s seems like a stronger model for post game win expectancy, as well, compared to other public post game models. Easier to spot misleading games/final scores. Thought some may be interested
| Team | Games | Game Control Index | Avg Game Margin | Control Style | Avg Lead Min | Avg Tie Min | Avg Trail Min | Wins / + Margin | Wins / – Margin | Losses / + Margin | Losses / – Margin |
| Grambling | 1 | 100.00% | 20.68 | Dominant | 60 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| North Dakota | 1 | 100.00% | 27.27 | Dominant | 60 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| South Dakota State | 1 | 98.80% | 41.72 | Dominant | 58.53 | 1.47 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Incarnate Word | 1 | 98.70% | 47.22 | Dominant | 58.43 | 1.57 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Richmond | 1 | 98.70% | 19.82 | Dominant | 58.45 | 1.55 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| UT Rio Grande Valley | 1 | 98.10% | 24.23 | Dominant | 57.67 | 2.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lehigh | 1 | 97.90% | 19.07 | Dominant | 57.43 | 2.57 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lamar | 1 | 97.30% | 7.91 | One-Score | 56.8 | 3.2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| South Carolina State | 1 | 97.30% | 46.63 | Dominant | 56.75 | 3.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Idaho State | 1 | 96.80% | 16.66 | Comfortable | 56.15 | 3.85 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 1 | 96.70% | 12.36 | Comfortable | 56 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Illinois State | 1 | 96.70% | 44.22 | Dominant | 56.07 | 3.93 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tarleton State | 1 | 95.70% | 12.12 | Comfortable | 54.8 | 5.2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Morris | 1 | 95.30% | 11.76 | Comfortable | 54.35 | 5.65 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Norfolk State | 1 | 94.90% | 24.41 | Dominant | 53.87 | 6.13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| USC | 1 | 94.90% | 18.07 | Dominant | 53.92 | 6.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elon | 1 | 94.70% | 17.72 | Dominant | 53.58 | 6.42 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ohio Dominican | 1 | 94.30% | 8.26 | Comfortable | 53.12 | 6.88 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dayton | 1 | 93.20% | 22.63 | Dominant | 51.83 | 8.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nicholls | 1 | 93.20% | 26.09 | Dominant | 51.88 | 8.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mercer | 1 | 93.10% | 11.02 | Comfortable | 51.75 | 8.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| North Dakota State | 1 | 92.90% | 11.24 | Comfortable | 51.5 | 8.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tennessee Tech | 1 | 92.70% | 13.13 | Comfortable | 51.18 | 8.82 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Valparaiso | 1 | 92.60% | 25.62 | Dominant | 51.15 | 8.85 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Stephen F. Austin | 1 | 92.40% | 11.41 | Comfortable | 50.98 | 8.9 | 0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Virginia | 1 | 92.30% | 14.74 | Comfortable | 50.82 | 9.18 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Montana State | 1 | 92.20% | 26.48 | Dominant | 50.65 | 9.35 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Montana | 1 | 92.00% | 7.55 | One-Score | 50.35 | 9.65 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Florida A&M | 1 | 91.20% | 7.89 | One-Score | 49.43 | 10.57 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Wofford | 1 | 90.40% | 16.22 | Comfortable | 48.47 | 11.53 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Hampton | 1 | 90.20% | 21.45 | Dominant | 48.23 | 11.77 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Florida State | 1 | 90.10% | 7.35 | One-Score | 48.08 | 11.92 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Stanford | 1 | 90.00% | 7.02 | One-Score | 50.47 | 7.12 | 2.42 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryant | 1 | 88.40% | 5.81 | One-Score | 46.07 | 13.93 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rhode Island | 1 | 88.30% | 11.4 | Comfortable | 45.92 | 14.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eastern Michigan | 1 | 86.90% | 8.71 | Comfortable | 44.33 | 15.67 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roosevelt | 1 | 86.90% | 11.96 | Comfortable | 48.6 | 7.08 | 4.32 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Portland State | 1 | 86.10% | 9.32 | Comfortable | 43.75 | 15.8 | 0.45 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Youngstown State | 1 | 86.10% | 20.25 | Dominant | 48.98 | 5.37 | 5.65 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Weber State | 1 | 85.40% | 3.85 | One-Score | 50.62 | 1.25 | 8.13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alabama A&M | 1 | 85.20% | 5.68 | One-Score | 47.33 | 7.53 | 5.13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Cal Poly | 1 | 85.10% | 4.31 | One-Score | 46.97 | 8.23 | 4.8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| West Florida | 1 | 84.90% | 6.46 | One-Score | 46.22 | 9.5 | 4.28 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alcorn State | 1 | 82.70% | 22.53 | Dominant | 39.27 | 20.73 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Maine | 1 | 82.30% | 4.91 | One-Score | 38.73 | 21.27 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| North Alabama | 1 | 82.30% | 5.21 | One-Score | 38.73 | 21.27 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Western Illinois | 1 | 82.10% | 19.33 | Dominant | 44.88 | 8.77 | 6.35 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Furman | 1 | 81.00% | 8.1 | Comfortable | 37.17 | 22.83 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Campbell | 1 | 80.40% | 4.75 | One-Score | 40.58 | 15.33 | 4.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Presbyterian | 1 | 80.40% | 4.84 | One-Score | 40.33 | 15.87 | 3.8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| South Dakota | 1 | 78.90% | 22.92 | Dominant | 45.83 | 3.03 | 11.13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eastern Washington | 1 | 78.60% | 4.31 | One-Score | 41.78 | 10.78 | 7.43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Colgate | 1 | 78.30% | 4.5 | One-Score | 33.97 | 26.03 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| North Carolina | 1 | 76.40% | 2.24 | One-Score | 34.6 | 22.47 | 2.93 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marist | 1 | 76.30% | 3.69 | One-Score | 42.78 | 6.05 | 11.17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Austin Peay | 1 | 74.20% | 9.08 | Comfortable | 39.13 | 10.72 | 10.15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eastern Illinois | 1 | 74.00% | 3.58 | One-Score | 33.68 | 21.43 | 4.88 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| UAlbany | 1 | 73.90% | 6.44 | One-Score | 36.08 | 16.55 | 7.37 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Southeast Missouri State | 1 | 72.10% | 2.85 | One-Score | 29.9 | 26.73 | 3.37 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Concord | 1 | 71.10% | 3.75 | One-Score | 33.42 | 18.47 | 8.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Houston Christian | 1 | 70.20% | 5.29 | One-Score | 34.7 | 14.85 | 10.45 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lindenwood | 1 | 69.80% | 4.37 | One-Score | 30.22 | 23.27 | 6.52 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| St. Thomas (MN) | 1 | 68.90% | 2.16 | One-Score | 27.67 | 27.33 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chattanooga | 1 | 68.50% | 3.63 | One-Score | 29.95 | 22.28 | 7.77 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| North Carolina A&T | 1 | 65.10% | 1.95 | One-Score | 33.13 | 11.87 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Central Arkansas | 1 | 64.80% | 3.4 | One-Score | 35.4 | 7 | 17.6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Western Carolina | 1 | 57.40% | 3.09 | One-Score | 27.78 | 13.3 | 18.92 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Memphis | 1 | 56.20% | 0.43 | One-Score | 15.72 | 36.02 | 8.27 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Southern | 1 | 56.20% | -1.29 | One-Score | 27.92 | 11.58 | 20.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| South Dakota Mines | 1 | 55.70% | 2.47 | One-Score | 31.65 | 3.57 | 24.78 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Louisiana Christian | 1 | 52.70% | -0.53 | One-Score | 29.67 | 3.95 | 26.38 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| North Carolina Central | 1 | 52.30% | 1.64 | One-Score | 27.48 | 7.73 | 24.78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Jackson State | 1 | 50.40% | 0.09 | One-Score | 21.52 | 17.48 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| William & Mary | 1 | 50.20% | -0.98 | One-Score | 19 | 22.22 | 18.78 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Villanova | 1 | 49.80% | 0.98 | One-Score | 18.78 | 22.22 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Tennessee State | 1 | 49.60% | -0.09 | One-Score | 21 | 17.48 | 21.52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Texas Southern | 1 | 47.80% | -1.64 | One-Score | 24.78 | 7.73 | 27.48 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Northwestern State | 1 | 47.30% | 0.53 | One-Score | 26.38 | 3.95 | 29.67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Drake | 1 | 44.30% | -2.47 | One-Score | 24.78 | 3.57 | 31.65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Alabama State | 1 | 43.80% | 1.29 | One-Score | 20.5 | 11.58 | 27.92 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| UNLV | 1 | 43.80% | -0.43 | One-Score | 8.27 | 36.02 | 15.72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Eastern Kentucky | 1 | 42.60% | -3.09 | One-Score | 18.92 | 13.3 | 27.78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| UT Martin | 1 | 35.20% | -3.4 | One-Score | 17.6 | 7 | 35.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Morgan State | 1 | 34.90% | -1.95 | One-Score | 15 | 11.87 | 33.13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| West Georgia | 1 | 31.50% | -3.63 | One-Score | 7.77 | 22.28 | 29.95 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Winona State | 1 | 31.10% | -2.16 | One-Score | 5 | 27.33 | 27.67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Charleston Southern | 1 | 30.30% | -4.37 | One-Score | 6.52 | 23.27 | 30.22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| SE Louisiana | 1 | 29.80% | -5.29 | One-Score | 10.45 | 14.85 | 34.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Davidson | 1 | 28.90% | -3.75 | One-Score | 8.12 | 18.47 | 33.42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Indiana State | 1 | 27.90% | -2.85 | One-Score | 3.37 | 26.73 | 29.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| New Hampshire | 1 | 26.10% | -6.44 | One-Score | 7.37 | 16.55 | 36.08 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Murray State | 1 | 26.00% | -3.58 | One-Score | 4.88 | 21.43 | 33.68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Gardner-Webb | 1 | 25.80% | -9.08 | Usually Chasing | 10.15 | 10.72 | 39.13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| New Haven | 1 | 23.70% | -3.69 | One-Score | 11.17 | 6.05 | 42.78 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| TCU | 1 | 23.60% | -2.24 | One-Score | 2.93 | 22.47 | 34.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Fordham | 1 | 21.70% | -4.5 | One-Score | 0 | 26.03 | 33.97 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Northern Arizona | 1 | 21.40% | -4.31 | One-Score | 7.43 | 10.78 | 41.78 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Central Connecticut | 1 | 21.10% | -22.92 | Dominated | 11.13 | 3.03 | 45.83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| East Tennessee State | 1 | 19.60% | -4.75 | One-Score | 4.08 | 15.33 | 40.58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| UVA Wise | 1 | 19.60% | -4.84 | One-Score | 3.8 | 15.87 | 40.33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Anderson (SC) | 1 | 19.00% | -8.1 | Usually Chasing | 0 | 22.83 | 37.17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Northwestern (IA) | 1 | 17.90% | -19.33 | Dominated | 6.35 | 8.77 | 44.88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Samford | 1 | 17.70% | -5.21 | One-Score | 0 | 21.27 | 38.73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Towson | 1 | 17.70% | -4.91 | One-Score | 0 | 21.27 | 38.73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Miles | 1 | 17.30% | -22.53 | Dominated | 0 | 20.73 | 39.27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Southern Illinois | 1 | 15.10% | -6.46 | One-Score | 4.28 | 9.5 | 46.22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Idaho | 1 | 14.90% | -4.31 | One-Score | 4.8 | 8.23 | 46.97 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Howard | 1 | 14.80% | -5.68 | One-Score | 5.13 | 7.53 | 47.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Northern Colorado | 1 | 14.60% | -3.85 | One-Score | 8.13 | 1.25 | 50.62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Mercyhurst | 1 | 13.90% | -20.25 | Dominated | 5.65 | 5.37 | 48.98 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| UC Davis | 1 | 13.90% | -9.32 | Usually Chasing | 0.45 | 15.8 | 43.75 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chicago State | 1 | 13.10% | -11.96 | Usually Chasing | 4.32 | 7.08 | 48.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sacramento State | 1 | 13.10% | -8.71 | Usually Chasing | 0 | 15.67 | 44.33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Merrimack | 1 | 11.70% | -11.4 | Usually Chasing | 0 | 14.08 | 45.92 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Stonehill | 1 | 11.60% | -5.81 | One-Score | 0 | 13.93 | 46.07 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Hawai’i | 1 | 10.00% | -7.02 | One-Score | 2.42 | 7.12 | 50.47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| New Mexico State | 1 | 9.90% | -7.35 | One-Score | 0 | 11.92 | 48.08 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Virginia Lynchburg | 1 | 9.80% | -21.45 | Dominated | 0 | 11.77 | 48.23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| The Citadel | 1 | 9.60% | -16.22 | Usually Chasing | 0 | 11.53 | 48.47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Albany State | 1 | 8.80% | -7.89 | One-Score | 0 | 10.57 | 49.43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Southern Utah | 1 | 8.00% | -7.55 | One-Score | 0 | 9.65 | 50.35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Utah Tech | 1 | 7.80% | -26.48 | Dominated | 0 | 9.35 | 50.65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| NC State | 1 | 7.70% | -14.74 | Usually Chasing | 0 | 9.18 | 50.82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| McNeese | 1 | 7.60% | -11.41 | Usually Chasing | 0.12 | 8.9 | 50.98 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Lawrence Tech | 1 | 7.40% | -25.62 | Dominated | 0 | 8.85 | 51.15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Monmouth | 1 | 7.30% | -13.13 | Usually Chasing | 0 | 8.82 | 51.18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jacksonville State | 1 | 7.10% | -11.24 | Usually Chasing | 0 | 8.5 | 51.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| East Texas A&M | 1 | 6.90% | -11.02 | Usually Chasing | 0 | 8.25 | 51.75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Fairmont State | 1 | 6.80% | -22.63 | Dominated | 0 | 8.17 | 51.83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Mississippi Valley State | 1 | 6.80% | -26.09 | Dominated | 0 | 8.12 | 51.88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Morehead State | 1 | 5.70% | -8.26 | Usually Chasing | 0 | 6.88 | 53.12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Glenville State | 1 | 5.30% | -17.72 | Dominated | 0 | 6.42 | 53.58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| San José State | 1 | 5.10% | -18.07 | Dominated | 0 | 6.08 | 53.92 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Winston-Salem State | 1 | 5.10% | -24.41 | Dominated | 0 | 6.13 | 53.87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Wagner | 1 | 4.70% | -11.76 | Usually Chasing | 0 | 5.65 | 54.35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Prairie View A&M | 1 | 4.30% | -12.12 | Usually Chasing | 0 | 5.2 | 54.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Morehouse | 1 | 3.30% | -12.36 | Usually Chasing | 0 | 4 | 56 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| St. Francis (IL) | 1 | 3.30% | -44.22 | Dominated | 0 | 3.93 | 56.07 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| VMI | 1 | 3.20% | -16.66 | Usually Chasing | 0 | 3.85 | 56.15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Abilene Christian | 1 | 2.70% | -7.91 | One-Score | 0 | 3.2 | 56.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Savannah State | 1 | 2.70% | -46.63 | Dominated | 0 | 3.25 | 56.75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Holy Cross | 1 | 2.10% | -19.07 | Dominated | 0 | 2.57 | 57.43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| UT Permian Basin | 1 | 1.90% | -24.23 | Dominated | 0 | 2.33 | 57.67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Bucknell | 1 | 1.30% | -19.82 | Dominated | 0 | 1.55 | 58.45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Oklahoma Panhandle | 1 | 1.30% | -47.22 | Dominated | 0 | 1.57 | 58.43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Stetson | 1 | 1.20% | -41.72 | Dominated | 0 | 1.47 | 58.53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Clark Atlanta | 1 | 0.00% | -20.68 | Dominated | 0 | 0 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Long Island University | 1 | 0.00% | -27.27 | Dominated | 0 | 0 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |