NCAA Football (FBS) win total projections after 10/4/23 games.
NCAA Football W/L projections after 10/4 games.
NCAA Football Week 4 box score analysis
The chart below is taking a look at the previous week’s box scores and showing who may have overachieved or underachieved based on stats. The program generates an “expected” margin of victory, using actual final game stats, and compares that to the: 1. Las Vegas line (pre-game prediction) 2. Actual margin of victory So if […]
NCAA Football box score analysis after week 3
The chart below is taking a look at the previous week’s box scores and showing who may have overachieved or underachieved based on stats. The program generates an “expected” margin of victory, using actual final game stats, and compares that to the: 1. Las Vegas line (pre-game prediction) 2. Actual margin of victory So if […]
NCAA FBS win projections after Week 3
NCAA Football (FBS) win total projections after week 3.
2023 CFB Week 2 Box Score Analysis
The chart below is taking a look at the previous week’s box scores and showing who may have overachieved or underachieved based on stats. The program generates an “expected” margin of victory, using actual final game stats, and compares that to the: 1. Las Vegas line (pre-game prediction) 2. Actual margin of victory So if […]
2023 Week 1 CFB Box Score Analysis
The chart below is taking a look at the previous week’s box scores and showing who may have overachieved or underachieved based on stats. The program generates an “expected” margin of victory, using actual final game stats, and compares that to the: 1. Las Vegas line (pre-game prediction) 2. Actual margin of victory So if […]
2023 Week 0 CFB Box Score Analysis
NCAA Box Score Analysis The chart below is taking a look at the previous week’s box scores and showing who may have overachieved or underachieved based on stats. The program generates an “expected” margin of victory, using actual final game stats, and compares that to the: 1. Las Vegas line (pre-game prediction) 2. Actual margin […]
2023 NCAA Football (FBS) Win Total Projections
NCAA Football (FBS) win total projections. Added a floor and ceiling as well based on their opponents. Team Floor Projected W Total Ceiling Games Air Force 5.82 8.03 10.25 12 Akron 1.61 3.83 6.04 12 Alabama 8.72 10.07 11.41 12 Appalachian St. 5.06 7.12 9.19 12 Arizona 1.02 4.47 7.93 12 Arizona State 1.74 4.64 […]
MLB Starting Pitcher Projections 7/30/23
Stat projections for starting pitchers for Sunday July 30, 2023. Pitcher OUTS HITS Runs BB K A CIVALE 2023 Season 17.82 4.44 2.40 1.16 4.79 A SMITH-SHAWVER 2023 Season 14.88 4.22 2.62 1.78 4.17 B BERNARDINO 2023 Season 5.34 1.00 0.60 0.17 2.44 B BIELAK 2023 Season 15.40 4.69 2.34 2.36 4.13 B SNELL 2023 Season 17.07 3.27 1.90 3.49 6.70 C BRADFORD 2023 Season 14.46 4.73 […]
NCAA Basketball post game win expectancy
Here are post game win percentages and scores for Men’s NCAA Basketball conference tournament games based on pre-game market expectations versus what actually happened in the game. Post game numbers are based everything in the box score. Taking into account pre-game stat expectations for each team and comparing them to actual results using a regression […]
CFB Week 6 post game win expectancy
Listed as pre-game win expectancy, actual result, and post game win expectancy. Pre game W EXP. Actual Post Game W EXP. SMU 42.20% 7.46% 54.12% UCF 57.80% 92.54% 45.88% SJSU 66.50% 98.48% 85.72% UNLV 33.50% 1.52% 14.28% Pre game W EXP. Actual Post Game W EXP. NEB 57.80% 52.61% 40.66% RUTG 42.20% 47.39% 59.34% Pre […]
2022 CFB Box Score Analysis Week 6
NCAA Box Score Analysis The chart below is taking a look at the previous week’s box scores and showing who may have overachieved or underachieved based on stats. The program generates an “expected” margin of victory, using actual final game stats, and compares that to the: 1. Las Vegas line (pre-game prediction) 2. Actual margin […]
NCAA Football Week 5 post game win expectancy
Listed as pre-game win expectancy, actual result, and post game win expectancy. Pre game W EXP. Actual Post Game W EXP. WASH 57.80% 29.993% 49.1028% UCLA 42.20% 70.007% 50.8972% Pre game W EXP. Actual Post Game W EXP. USU 4.41% 21.567% 28.2602% BYU 95.59% 78.433% 71.7398% Pre game W EXP. Actual Post Game W EXP. […]
2022 CFB Box Score Analysis Week 5
NCAA Box Score Analysis The chart below is taking a look at the previous week’s box scores and showing who may have overachieved or underachieved based on stats. The program generates an “expected” margin of victory, using actual final game stats, and compares that to the: 1. Las Vegas line (pre-game prediction) 2. Actual margin […]
2022 CFB Week 1 Box Score Analysis
NCAA Box Score Analysis The chart below is taking a look at the previous week’s box scores and showing who may have overachieved or underachieved based on stats. The program generates an “expected” margin of victory, using actual final game stats, and compares that to the: 1. Las Vegas line (pre-game prediction) 2. Actual margin […]
NCAA Football 2022 Box Score Analysis
NCAA Box Score Analysis The chart below is taking a look at the previous week’s box scores and showing who may have overachieved or underachieved based on stats. The program generates an “expected” margin of victory, using actual final game stats, and compares that to the: 1. Las Vegas line (pre-game prediction) 2. Actual margin […]
NBA post game win expectancy UPDATE
In an earlier post I outlined how I’m analyzing basketball games using a post game win expectancy model and comparing it to the actual results. The results have been an excellent predictor of the next game of the series after comparing what actually happened in the game versus what their stats/possessions tell us. (Predicting which […]
NBA 1st Round post game win expectancy model
Here are post game win percentages and scores for this year’s NBA first round playoffs based on pre-game market expectations versus what actually happened in the game. Post game numbers are based everything in the box score. Taking into account pre-game stat expectations for each team and comparing them to actual results using a […]
NCAA Football box score analysis week 6
NCAA Box Score Analysis The chart below is taking a look at the previous week’s box scores and showing who may have overachieved or underachieved based on stats. The program generates an “expected” margin of victory, using actual final game stats, and compares that to the: 1. Las Vegas line (pre-game prediction) 2. Actual […]
10/2 -10/3 NCAA Football Box Score analysis
NCAA Box Score Analysis The chart below is taking a look at the previous week’s box scores and showing who may have overachieved or underachieved based on stats. The program generates an “expected” margin of victory, using actual final game stats, and compares that to the: 1. Las Vegas line (pre-game prediction) 2. Actual margin […]
NCAA Football box score analysis/misleading finals
NCAA Box Score Analysis The chart below is taking a look at the previous week’s box scores and showing who may have overachieved or underachieved based on stats. The program generates an “expected” margin of victory, using actual final game stats, and compares that to the: 1. Las Vegas line (pre-game prediction) 2. Actual margin […]
NCAA Football Misleading Finals Week 1
NCAA Box Score Analysis The chart below is taking a look at the previous week’s box scores and showing who may have overachieved or underachieved based on stats. The program generates an “expected” margin of victory, using actual final game stats, and compares that to the: 1. Las Vegas line (pre-game prediction) 2. Actual margin […]
2020 XFL Projections
11/24/19 NCAA Basketball Projections
Indiana St. 70.05 Air Force 68.37 138.42 1.67 11/24/2019 *NEUTRAL* Presbyterian 59.34 Albany 67.65 126.99 -8.3 11/24/2019 *NEUTRAL* Long Beach St. 58.19 Arizona 83.3 141.49 -25.11 11/24/2019 (Home) Virginia 66.82 Arizona St. 56.92 123.75 9.9 11/24/2019 *NEUTRAL* Villanova 72.6 Baylor 69.41 142.01 3.18 11/24/2019 *NEUTRAL* Cincinnati 76.04 Bowling Green 67.67 143.71 8.37 11/24/2019 *NEUTRAL* Missouri […]
2019 Week 2 NCAAF mis-leading scores.
NCAA Box Score Analysis The chart below is taking a look at the previous week’s box scores and showing who may have overachieved or underachieved based on stats.The program generates an “expected” margin of victory, using actual final game stats, and compares that to the: 1. Las Vegas line (pre-game prediction)2. Actual margin of victory […]
2019 Week 1 NCAA misleading finals
NCAA Box Score Analysis The chart below is taking a look at the previous week’s box scores and showing who may have overachieved or underachieved based on stats.The program generates an “expected” margin of victory, using actual final game stats, and compares that to the: 1. Las Vegas line (pre-game prediction)2. Actual margin of victory […]
2019 FIBA World Cup Projections
Game projections for 2019 FIBA World Cup in China. 9/3/19 9/2/19 9/1/19
Friday April 12, 2019 MLB projections
Game projections for M.L.B games. Get each team’s projected score, the total score, money line favorite, combined total runs, hits & errors and the chance of a team scoring a run in the 1st inning.
Thursday April 11, 2019 MLB projections
Game projections for M.L.B games. Get each team’s projected score, the total score, money line favorite, combined total runs, hits & errors and the chance of a team scoring a run in the 1st inning.
Wednesday April 20, 2019 MLB projections
Game projections for M.L.B games. Get each team’s projected score, the total score, money line favorite, combined total runs, hits & errors and the chance of a team scoring a run in the 1st inning.
Tuesday April 9, 2018 MLB projections
Game projections for M.L.B games. Get each team’s projected score, the total score, money line favorite, combined total runs, hits & errors and the chance of a team scoring a run in the 1st inning.
Monday April 8, 2019 MLB projections
Game projections for M.L.B games. Get each team’s projected score, the total score, money line favorite, combined total runs, hits & errors and the chance of a team scoring a run in the 1st inning.
Sunday April 7, 2019 MLB projections
Game projections for M.L.B games. Get each team’s projected score, the total score, money line favorite, combined total runs, hits & errors and the chance of a team scoring a run in the 1st inning.
NCAA Baseball projections April 6, 2019
Score projections for NCAA Division 1 Baseball games on 4/6/19. Listed below you’ll find a projected winning team, losing team, odds for each team winning the game, and each team’s projected total runs. Game scores don’t include today’s starting pitcher, they are based on overall team strength, so adjust accordingly.
Saturday April 6, 2019 MLB Projections
Game projections for M.L.B games. Get each team’s projected score, the total score, money line favorite, combined total runs, hits & errors and the chance of a team scoring a run in the 1st inning.
Friday April 5, 2019 MLB Projections
Game Projections for Major League Baseball games. Get each team’s projected score, the game total score, money line favorite, combined total runs, hits & errors and the chance of a team scoring a run in the 1st inning.
Thursday April 4, 2019 MLB Projections
Game Projections for Major League Baseball games. Get each team’s projected score, the game total score, money line favorite, combined total runs, hits & errors and the chance of a team scoring a run in the 1st inning.
Wednesday April 3, 2019 MLB Projections
Game Projections for Major League Baseball games. Get each team’s projected score, the game total score, money line favorite, combined total runs, hits & errors and the chance of a team scoring a run in the 1st inning.
Tuesday April 2, 2019 MLB Projections
Game Projections for 4/2/19 Major League Baseball games. Get each team’s projected score, the game total score, money line favorite, combined total runs, hits & errors and the chance of a team scoring a run in the 1st inning. MLB Milwaukee Brewers Cincinnati Reds Away– Milwaukee Brewers Jhouyls Chacin — 3.68 Home– Cincinnati Reds Anthony […]
2018 Week 1 NCAA Football Misleading Final Scores
I’ve put together a program taking a look at each NCAA Football box score to see if a team’s, actual stats, met their pre-game (line) expectation and the final score (margin). So if a team meets or exceeds pre-game expectations, by the actual play on the field, they are rewarded. However if they win or […]
Sunday April 29, 2018 MLB Projections
Game Projections for 4/29/18 MLB games. Get each team’s projected score, the game total score, money line favorite, combined total runs, hits & errors and the chance of a team scoring a run in the 1st inning. MLB Detroit Tigers Baltimore Orioles Projected Line Projected Score Away– Detroit Tigers Daniel Norris 4.02 Home– Baltimore Orioles […]
Week 3 Arena Football Projections
Arena Football Week 3 2018. Below you’ll find each team’s projected score as well as their projected team stats for the game. Also listed is each QB’s potential Draftkings points based on the stats. (Draftkings will create AFL fantasy contests in 2019) Albany Empire 48.5 Baltimore Brigade 57.5 106 9 -9 4/28/2018 (Home) Washington Valor […]
Saturday April 28, 2018 MLB Projections
Game Projections for 4/28/18 MLB games. Get each team’s projected score, the game total score, money line favorite, combined total runs, hits & errors and the chance of a team scoring a run in the 1st inning. MLB Detroit Tigers Baltimore Orioles Projected Line Projected Score Away– Detroit Tigers Francisco Liriano 4.51 Home– Baltimore Orioles […]
NCAA Baseball Game Projections 4/27/18-4/29/18
Score projections for NCAA Division 1 Baseball games on 4/27/18-4/29/18. Listed below you’ll find a projected winning team, losing team, odds for each team winning the game, and each team’s projected total runs. Game scores don’t include today’s starting pitcher, they are based on overall team strength, so adjust accordingly. Away Odds Home Odds/Und Location […]
Friday April 27, 2018 MLB Projections
Game Projections for 4/27/18 MLB games. Get each team’s projected score, the game total score, money line favorite, combined total runs, hits & errors and the chance of a team scoring a run in the 1st inning. MLB Detroit Tigers Baltimore Orioles Projected Line Projected Score Away– Detroit Tigers Mike Fiers 4.52 Home– Baltimore Orioles […]
4/26/18 MLB Run Chart
The chart below shows each team’s total runs scored (team & opponent total runs) for their overall season play, current play, and larger sample size. It will give you an idea of which direction each team is trending with their total runs scored. (Through 4/25/18 games) Team Games OVERALL LAST 3 LAST 6 LAST 9 […]
Thursday April 26, 2018 MLB Projections
Game Projections for 4/26/18 MLB games. Get each team’s projected score, the game total score, money line favorite, combined total runs, hits & errors and the chance of a team scoring a run in the 1st inning. MLB Tampa Bay Rays Baltimore Orioles Projected Line Projected Score Away– Tampa Bay Rays Chris Archer 3.31 Home– […]
Wednesday April 25, 2018 MLB Projections
Game Projections for 4/25/18 MLB games. Get each team’s projected score, the game total score, money line favorite, combined total runs, hits & errors and the chance of a team scoring a run in the 1st inning. MLB Tampa Bay Rays Baltimore Orioles Projected Line Projected Score Away– Tampa Bay Rays Jacob Faria 4.08 Home– […]
Tuesday April 24, 2018 MLB Projections
Game Projections for 4/24/18 MLB games. Get each team’s projected score, the game total score, money line favorite, combined total runs, hits & errors and the chance of a team scoring a run in the 1st inning. MLB Tampa Bay Rays Baltimore Orioles Projected Line Projected Score Away– Tampa Bay Rays Jacob Faria 4.08 Home– […]
Monday April 23, 2018 MLB Projections
Game Projections for 4/23/18 MLB games. Get each team’s projected score, the game total score, money line favorite, combined total runs, hits & errors and the chance of a team scoring a run in the 1st inning. MLB Cleveland Indians Baltimore Orioles Projected Line Projected Score Away– Cleveland Indians Carlos Carrasco -133 4.08 Home– Baltimore […]