{"id":1455,"date":"2024-08-27T12:21:32","date_gmt":"2024-08-27T16:21:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.gamedaypredictor.com\/blog\/?p=1455"},"modified":"2024-09-05T11:51:29","modified_gmt":"2024-09-05T15:51:29","slug":"2024-ncaa-football-week-0-box-score-analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.gamedaypredictor.com\/blog\/?p=1455","title":{"rendered":"2024 NCAA Football Week 0 Box Score Analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.gamedaypredictor.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/ncaafpic.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1391 size-full\" src=\"http:\/\/www.gamedaypredictor.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/ncaafpic.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"427\" srcset=\"http:\/\/www.gamedaypredictor.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/ncaafpic.png 640w, http:\/\/www.gamedaypredictor.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/ncaafpic-300x200.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The chart below is taking a look at the previous week\u2019s box scores and showing who may have overachieved or underachieved based on stats. The program generates an \u201cexpected\u201d margin of victory, using actual final game stats, and compares that to the:<\/p>\n<p>1. Las Vegas line (pre-game prediction) 2. Actual margin of victory<\/p>\n<p>So if a team meets or exceeds pre game expectations, by the actual play on the field, they are rewarded. However if they win or lose and are statistically dominated this program will show that.<\/p>\n<p>Key: 1. ATS\u2013 Against the spread.<\/p>\n<p>2. Act. Yds vs Act. Spread \u2013How each team did using their yardage stats and turnovers.<\/p>\n<p>3. Game should\u2019ve been.. \u2014 A scoring projection based on total yards gained using yards per point.<\/p>\n<p>4. Win Margin\u2014Final game margin.<\/p>\n<p>5. Yds\/TO spread conv.\u2014 A spread projection using total yards gained\/allowed and turnovers.<\/p>\n<p>6. Game tot\u2014Acutal game total.<\/p>\n<p>7. Yppt. Total\u2014A total projection of how many points should\u2019ve been scored based on yards.<\/p>\n<p>8. W\/L Projection\u2014An estimation of the final score using actual yards and turnover margin. 9. Margin\u2014A number each team \u201cshould\u2019ve\u201d won\/loss by.<\/p>\n<p>10. Actual Yds\u2014Total yards gained in the game by the offense. 11. Score should\u2019ve been..\u2014A projection for a score based on the game stats and turnovers.<\/p>\n<p>12. TO\u2014Adjusted TO based on actual and pre-game projection.<\/p>\n<p>13. Next Week\u2014A computer generated suggestion for how a team may do next week. (Good, Bad, Play, Fade)<\/p>\n<p>Good\u2014Played as they were projected to do in the game.<\/p>\n<p>Bad\u2014Played below expectations for the game.<\/p>\n<p>Fade\u2014Played well below expectations for the game.<\/p>\n<p>Play\u2014Played better than final score and should be looked at next week.<\/p>\n<p>(Good\/Bad\/Fade\/Play are just suggestions to look at as a guide. Don\u2019t just automatically use them as they are listed. They are to be used to help not as a magic formula)<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\">NEW!! Post game win expectancy numbers below the box score analysis. It shows pre-game expectation (vs the predicted spread), actual final margin, and post-game win expectancy factoring in all of the box score stats.<\/h3>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">Click link to view last week&#8217;s games.<\/span><\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/1WivrzxulQETN_TxkMwNoZNImW1FygX-DA8juGE0G43w\/edit?gid=0#gid=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">2024 Box Score Analysis Google Sheet<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The chart below is taking a look at the previous week\u2019s box scores and showing who may have overachieved or underachieved based on stats. The program generates an \u201cexpected\u201d margin of victory, using actual final game stats, and compares that to the: 1. Las Vegas line (pre-game prediction) 2. Actual margin of victory So if [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1391,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.gamedaypredictor.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1455"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.gamedaypredictor.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.gamedaypredictor.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.gamedaypredictor.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.gamedaypredictor.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1455"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"http:\/\/www.gamedaypredictor.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1455\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1472,"href":"http:\/\/www.gamedaypredictor.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1455\/revisions\/1472"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.gamedaypredictor.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1391"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.gamedaypredictor.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1455"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.gamedaypredictor.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1455"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.gamedaypredictor.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1455"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}