Odds of winning the 2012-2013 NCAA Women's Basketball Championship

The odds below are based on each team's current power rating and the path they would have to take to play in the championship.
I took my higher rated teams for the play in games but can add the teams I've left out for anyone that's interested.


Winning Winning Winning Winning Winning Winning

1st Round 2nd Round Sweet 16 Final 8 Final 4 Championship
Baylor 99.99% 89.60% 82.44% 71.78% 63.17% 40.37%
Prairie View A&M 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Princeton 41.79% 3.46% 1.84% 0.78% 0.34% 0.06%
Florida St. 58.21% 6.94% 4.23% 2.11% 1.09% 0.24%
Louisville 76.67% 55.95% 8.73% 4.27% 2.17% 0.47%
Middle Tennessee 23.33% 10.74% 0.53% 0.13% 0.03% 0.00%
Purdue 68.15% 26.07% 1.98% 0.62% 0.21% 0.02%
Liberty 31.85% 7.24% 0.24% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00%
Oklahoma 70.03% 39.00% 11.47% 1.32% 0.48% 0.06%
Central Michigan 29.97% 10.75% 1.58% 0.08% 0.02% 0.00%
Stetson 25.89% 8.33% 1.04% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00%
UCLA 74.11% 41.92% 12.54% 1.47% 0.54% 0.07%
Syracuse 88.34% 39.00% 27.34% 5.51% 2.92% 0.68%
Creighton 11.66% 1.25% 0.33% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
Oral Roberts 6.12% 0.83% 0.18% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
Tennessee 93.88% 58.93% 45.52% 11.83% 7.25% 2.18%





























Winning Winning Winning Winning Winning Winning

1st Round 2nd Round Sweet 16 Final 8 Final 4 Championship
Stanford 92.61% 73.76% 53.86% 35.92% 10.32% 3.06%
Tulsa 7.39% 1.98% 0.42% 0.07% 0.00% 0.00%
Villanova 50.29% 12.25% 5.19% 1.87% 0.19% 0.02%
Michigan 49.71% 12.01% 5.06% 1.80% 0.19% 0.02%
Iowa St. 63.63% 43.07% 18.39% 9.44% 1.70% 0.30%
Gonzaga 36.37% 20.00% 6.13% 2.34% 0.27% 0.03%
Georgia 77.86% 33.11% 10.49% 4.12% 0.49% 0.05%
Montana 22.14% 3.82% 0.46% 0.07% 0.00% 0.00%
LSU 38.13% 10.08% 4.00% 1.07% 0.09% 0.01%
Green Bay 61.87% 22.44% 11.53% 4.24% 0.56% 0.07%
Cal Poly 11.38% 3.15% 0.79% 0.12% 0.01% 0.00%
Penn St. 88.62% 64.33% 44.91% 24.71% 6.00% 1.48%
South Florida 53.45% 26.91% 10.21% 3.57% 0.44% 0.05%
Texas Tech 46.55% 21.91% 7.64% 2.44% 0.27% 0.03%
Fresno St. 19.02% 4.67% 0.75% 0.11% 0.00% 0.00%
California 80.98% 46.51% 20.17% 8.10% 1.22% 0.18%





























Winning Winning Winning Winning Winning Winning

1st Round 2nd Round Sweet 16 Final 8 Final 4 Championship
Notre Dame 98.70% 95.01% 89.53% 69.93% 48.98% 29.15%
Tennessee Martin 1.30% 0.43% 0.11% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
Miami FL 52.95% 2.58% 1.14% 0.21% 0.03% 0.00%
Iowa 47.05% 1.99% 0.83% 0.14% 0.02% 0.00%
Kansas 49.89% 23.05% 1.64% 0.32% 0.05% 0.01%
Colorado 50.11% 23.20% 1.65% 0.33% 0.05% 0.01%
South Carolina 75.07% 45.29% 4.79% 1.32% 0.28% 0.05%
South Dakota St. 24.93% 8.46% 0.31% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00%
Nebraska 39.08% 6.44% 0.87% 0.05% 0.00% 0.00%
Chattanooga 60.92% 14.28% 2.84% 0.25% 0.04% 0.00%
Texas A&M 91.21% 76.15% 37.33% 9.92% 3.99% 1.28%
Wichita St. 8.79% 3.13% 0.31% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
Oklahoma St. 70.56% 23.53% 10.98% 2.04% 0.60% 0.14%
DePaul 29.44% 5.21% 1.48% 0.13% 0.02% 0.00%
Duke 93.09% 69.73% 45.93% 15.29% 7.39% 2.88%
Hampton 6.91% 1.53% 0.27% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%





























Winning Winning Winning Winning Winning Winning

1st Round 2nd Round Sweet 16 Final 8 Final 4 Championship
Connecticut 99.29% 86.80% 72.69% 51.91% 24.82% 12.33%
Idaho 0.71% 0.07% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Saint Josephs 38.92% 3.79% 1.48% 0.37% 0.04% 0.00%
Vanderbilt 61.08% 9.34% 4.62% 1.56% 0.24% 0.04%
Michigan St. 45.17% 13.82% 1.52% 0.32% 0.03% 0.00%
Marist 54.83% 18.99% 2.51% 0.61% 0.06% 0.01%
Maryland 86.04% 62.74% 16.91% 7.25% 1.57% 0.39%
Quinnipiac 13.96% 4.46% 0.25% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00%
West Virginia 30.39% 9.59% 1.85% 0.25% 0.02% 0.00%
Delaware 69.61% 34.91% 11.98% 3.10% 0.54% 0.11%
Albany 19.07% 5.54% 0.81% 0.08% 0.00% 0.00%
North Carolina 80.93% 49.96% 19.79% 6.04% 1.28% 0.31%
St. Johns 39.05% 6.60% 2.19% 0.32% 0.03% 0.00%
Dayton 60.95% 14.65% 6.35% 1.33% 0.18% 0.03%
Kentucky 93.72% 77.02% 56.70% 26.81% 9.74% 3.79%
Navy 6.28% 1.73% 0.34% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00%